Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 198.930789 243.510827 299.393769 376.006270 480.615507 6.220562e+02 8.343790e+02
2025-01-05 146.173896 195.815979 266.410041 378.714053 562.496700 8.715345e+02 1.484003e+03
2025-01-12 120.767207 172.171637 252.132022 394.461107 664.252206 1.214898e+03 2.658578e+03
2025-01-19 100.323466 149.182053 230.047912 386.167556 717.307369 1.510449e+03 4.208981e+03
2025-01-26 92.882593 144.389411 235.513016 428.132432 894.480611 2.263770e+03 9.088169e+03
2025-02-02 85.998375 138.719107 237.409018 463.357856 1082.040182 3.316177e+03 2.106649e+04
2025-02-09 79.605064 132.464427 236.312980 491.476329 1275.006791 4.768216e+03 5.514367e+04
2025-02-16 73.403226 125.326403 231.551555 508.960136 1453.837252 6.642817e+03 1.708224e+05
2025-02-23 67.826969 118.399349 225.578052 521.157895 1630.216410 9.166020e+03 7.872817e+05
2025-03-02 61.466828 108.913347 211.915138 506.952053 1693.943161 1.121937e+04 4.549354e+06
2025-03-09 56.057735 100.642692 199.515034 492.547146 1750.099459 1.365486e+04 1.762534e+08
2025-03-16 51.019559 92.520565 186.070626 470.783962 1757.216556 1.577379e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 50.229281 93.559839 195.636329 529.875894 2281.282484 3.244024e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 47.020398 88.875874 189.912585 534.772273 2508.989603 4.937929e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 44.922286 86.401778 189.502535 559.742703 2932.784215 9.415695e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 41.735244 81.026018 180.243788 546.640392 3051.729030 1.361181e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 41.331359 82.101374 189.161536 613.452780 4057.296255 5.677547e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 40.490620 82.008337 194.753024 670.339492 5212.491565 4.495236e+06 NaN
2025-05-04 39.345336 81.009338 197.446653 716.256407 6488.124997 5.627093e+08 NaN
2025-05-11 37.881242 79.022135 196.679452 745.028179 7713.392343 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 36.355834 76.699041 194.405066 765.199640 8976.073094 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 34.196850 72.500592 185.242815 741.715138 9218.675374 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 32.222353 68.615234 176.578306 718.013756 9413.203274 NaN NaN